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Numbers Never Lie....but they can be used to exagerate



north vancouver real estate stats

Stats! I love them. I think that stats are so cool even though I'm not a very mathy person. Maybe that's why I love them, because you don't have to be a mathematician to understand stats.


Quick story (super quick, I promise) When I was in 1st year university at Trent in Peterborough, Ont I was in Psychology 101. I thought it was going to be all about brain stuff and why people behave the way they do. I was excited to find out what Freud meant and how Jung came to his conclusions. But, in the very first lecture, they put up a slide that had words like "standard deviation" and "mean". I was disappointed and terrified I'd fail the class. As it turned out, I ended up learning to absolutely love statistical analysis and man, oh man, has it been useful in this job! (see? that was pretty quick)


Alrighty then....people ask me, daily:


"How's the market?"


My answer is always the same "What market?"


If you want me to tell you the state of the entire Canadian real estate market I can do that but it won't do much to tell you what your home is worth or how much you'd need to have in order to get into the market. Those numbers are much more specific and, thanks to the real estate board of greater vangroovy, I can access pretty much any stat you can think of.


For today, I just wanted to give you a quick snapshot of what's happening in the North Vancouver market but, as I am want to do, I've split it into attached and detached homes because we're seeing some wild differences right now that are making "our market" weird...imho.


SINGLE FAMILY HOMES:

In Jan there were 173 listed.

In April there were 283 listed.


In Jan 37 were sold

In April 76 were sold


Here's where things get spicy;

In March there were 99 new listings

In April there were 232 new listings!


We sold through 21% of the inventory in Jan and 26% in April. So things ARE picking up a bit but it's important to see that for single family homes, even though they're not flying off the shelves, they are holding and increasing in value.


In Jan the price per square foot was $782

In April the price per square foot was $852

(remember this for a moment)


CONDOS/TOWNHOMES/DUPLEXES:

In Jan there were 204 listed

In April there were 290 listed


In Jan 63 were sold

In April 117 were sold (40% of the units were sold)


There wasn't such a big jump in new listings from March (129) to April (252)

BUT!!!!

The price per square foot in Jan was $1009 and in April it was $939.


What does this all mean?


There are still more sellers than buyers at the moment.

The prices of single family homes continues to rise.

The price for attached units has dropped off a bit since January.

Sales are not as brisk as they could be.


Why?


What market factors are at play here?


I think there are a few things happening here:


  • There are the new, provincial rules coming at the end of June which is making developers more interested in single family lots.

  • The proposed capital gains inclusion increase has investors scared that they will have to pay higher taxes on their investment properties.

  • The Bank of Canada has hinted at a rate drop for June and people seem to be waiting (though that's not the smartest move because if the rates drop prices will surely go up)


What do you think? Do you have any ideas about what's going on in the North Van market? Leave you notes in the comments :)




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